Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin and gold were the worst-performing major assets in H1 2026, while US stocks extended their outperformance over international stocks to over 15 years.
- A new study shows equal-weighting outperforms market-cap weighting, and avoiding large caps improves returns.
- The Breez SDK now allows sending USDT/USDC to 30+ networks directly from a Bitcoin balance, advancing Bitcoin UX.
- Marc Andreessen compares AI to Galileo's telescope and stresses the First Amendment as a key error-correction system.
- Jason predicts AI will replace 10-15% of paid US drivers within five years and warns of AI API dependency risks.
- Meb Faber proposes a "Trump Account" giving $1,000 to every newborn to invest in US companies.
1. US Market and Economy
- Charlie Bilello reports that Bitcoin and gold were the worst-performing major assets in the first half of 2026, with declines of 31% and 7% respectively. Additionally, US stocks have outperformed international stocks on a rolling 5-year basis for over 15 years, the longest such streak on record. — via 1 2
- Meb Faber highlights a new paper by Bessembinder showing that the best way to improve market returns is to avoid large-cap stocks, and that equal-weighting outperforms market-cap weighting. — via 1
- Meb Faber notes that the US accounts for 5% of global population, 25% of GDP, and 60% of market cap of the top 100 companies. The US participates in about 75% of top inventions, has $1.5 trillion in federal project backlog, and its venture capital is roughly 10x that of Europe, while China graduates 350,000 mechanical engineers annually vs 45,000 in the US. — via 1
2. Bitcoin Infrastructure Innovation
- Lyn Alden reports that the Breez SDK has launched a new feature allowing users to send USDT/USDC to over 30 networks directly from their Bitcoin balance, without needing to manage a second network. This is described as the future of Bitcoin UX. — via 1
3. AI Trends and Risks
- Marc Andreessen likens AI to Galileo's telescope, describing it as a fine lens to understand the future and an end in itself, cautioning against obsessing over AI's economic impact. He also emphasizes that the First Amendment is the greatest error-correction system. — via 1 2
- Jason predicts that 10-15% of paid drivers in the US will be replaced by AI within five years, and invites discussion on the specifics. — via 1
- Jason warns about the dependency risk of AI APIs: model makers gain data on users' distribution, profits, and churn rates by using their APIs, making users research subjects rather than partners. — via 1
4. US 250th Anniversary and Policy Proposals
- Meb Faber announces the launch of his new book "Investing in America" and supports the "Invest America Act" proposing a "Trump Account" that would give every newborn $1,000 to invest in US companies, with public-private partnerships for education and housing. — via 1 2
- Marc Andreessen strongly recommends the film "Young Washington", calling it an American version of "Braveheart" for the 250th anniversary. — via 1
- MuddyWatersResearch highlights that no country protects the right to criticize the government as strongly as the US, citing the First Amendment on its 250th birthday. — via 1
