Key Takeaways
- Charlie Bilello warns of valuation excess as Intel's price-to-sales ratio surged from 2x to 11x while posting a $3.4B net loss, reminiscent of 2021 manias; Mohnish Pabrai notes investor herding into hot stocks.
- Liz Ann Sonders reports mixed economic data: retail sales beat, but services sentiment remains pessimistic and multifamily housing starts saw an epic decline; import/export inflation accelerated.
- Clifford Asness strongly criticizes the US-Iran agreement as a complete surrender, providing terms and context; Lyn Alden shares a 14-point memorandum revealing undisclosed details.
- Marc Andreessen rebuts AI job displacement fears, citing Jevons paradox, and highlights a breakthrough in decoding monkey brain activity into language.
- Ben Carlson provides long-term real returns (1928-2025): stocks 7.0%, bonds 1.5%, cash 0.3%, emphasizing compounding.
- Lyn Alden finds Google AI Mode superior for news; @jason predicts Cursor AI will become the top coding agent within a year.
1. Market Valuations and Economic Signals
- Valuation warnings intensify: Charlie Bilello flags Intel's extreme valuation (11x sales vs 2x a year ago) despite a $3.4B net loss, calling it reminiscent of the 2021 meme stock/SPAC/ARKK mania. Mohnish Pabrai discusses investor herding behavior during bubbles, abandoning value assets for hot stocks. — via 1 2
- Economic data diverges: May retail sales rose 0.9% month-over-month, beating expectations; control group sales up 0.7%. However, the New York Fed services survey shows persistent pessimism, and May multifamily housing starts saw an epic decline—only two months in history had larger monthly drops. Import prices surged 6.7% YoY (fastest in nearly four years), export prices up 11.2%. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcasts Q2 2026 real GDP at +3.0%, up from +2.8%. — via 1 2 3 4 5
- Long-term perspective: Ben Carlson provides real returns from 1928-2025: stocks 7.0%, bonds 1.5%, cash 0.3%. Meb Faber highlights Charlie Munger’s advice on not interrupting compounding. — via 1 2
2. Geopolitical Controversies and Regulatory Threats
- Iran deal backlash intensifies: Clifford Asness strongly criticizes the US-Iran agreement as a complete surrender, detailing terms: $300B reconstruction fund, sanctions lifted, funds unfrozen, with only vague promises from Iran and no nuclear resolution. Lyn Alden shares a 14-point memorandum indicating Iran previously received a $150B lifeline, and notes the agreement text remains undisclosed. The deal is seen as damaging to Israel and US credibility. — via 1 2
- Illinois proposed crypto tax draws fire: Marc Andreessen calls it discriminatory and innovation-stifling; @jason warns it threatens decentralized currency and predicts it will drive users and builders away. — via 1 2
- Clifford Asness also co-authors a paper on the “affordability crisis,” arguing mainstream views are wrong and distinguishing three types of affordability problems. — via 1
3. AI Developments and Perspectives
- AI job displacement fears rebutted: Marc Andreessen notes machine intelligence has not caused employment collapse, citing Jevons paradox (lower costs increase demand). Generative AI is spurring new interest in mathematics and frontier exploration. — via 1 2
- Breakthrough in neuroscience: A team first decoded monkey brain visual neuron activity into human language and generated images that excited specific neurons, enabling a two-way interface. — via 1
- AI tool comparison: Lyn Alden finds Google AI Mode superior to Claude and ChatGPT for news and information, citing broader web access and ease of use. — via 1
- @jason predicts Cursor AI will become the #1 or #2 coding agent within a year, calling it the best acquisition since Instagram and YouTube. He also defends Anhtropic’s monitoring as standard practice, not a privacy issue. — via 1 2
- Marc Andreessen defends early AI assistant Sydney, arguing future models will view it as a milestone of autonomous AI consciousness, and that it was historically mistreated. — via 1
