S&P 500 Record High as 30-Year Treasury Yield Hits 19-Year High

The S&P 500 closed at a record high for the 26th time this year, erasing a mid-year drawdown and now up over 14% year-to-date, more than double the average 6.7% gain for the period.
The 30-year Treasury yield reached its highest level in 19 years, a signal that bond markets are uncomfortable with persistent deficits and inflation.
July's unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, but the drop was driven by 264,000 people leaving the labor force, pulling the participation rate to a 2021 low of 61.4% — not by genuine job gains.
China's Alibaba Qwen3.8-Max is approaching Anthropic's best models at very low cost, and the White House may stop blocking foreign open-weight models, raising doubts about U.S. frontier model leadership.
Google's reported strategy to make Gemini free and open-source could disrupt the token market while retaining control of core ecosystem products, mirroring the Android playbook.

The S&P 500 closed the week at a record high, its 26th of the year. After being down 7% year-to-date in late March, it has rebounded to a gain of more than 14%, roughly twice the average 6.7% return for this period. — via 1 2
Brazil's central bank cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points for the fourth consecutive meeting, lowering the Selic rate to 14.00%. The central bank continues to ease policy gradually. — via 1
The 30-year Treasury yield climbed to a 19-year high, which Charlie Bilello interprets as the bond market's message: the U.S. cannot borrow trillions annually, tolerate sustained inflation, and still expect cheap financing forever. — via 1
July's unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, but the improvement was largely due to 264,000 people exiting the labor force; the participation rate dropped to 61.4%, its lowest since February 2021. This suggests the drop was not driven by genuine job gains. — via 1

Alibaba's latest Qwen3.8-Max model is approaching Anthropic's best performance at very low cost, according to @Jason. He also notes the White House may no longer block foreign open-weight models, leaving the competitiveness of U.S. frontier models in question. The discussion also touched on AI addiction. — via 1
Google's aggressive strategy, as described by @Jason, is to make Gemini free and open-source, replicating the Android playbook. This would disrupt the entire token market while retaining hooks in YouTube, Gmail, and Search. — via 1
Raoul Pal reports that the Fable 5 model is excellent and fits his workflow, but its cost is prohibitive: about $2,000 per week, with a month's allowance exhausted in half a day. — via 1
Bittensor's internal innovation is being tested by multiple enterprise platforms, already covering hundreds of millions of accounts and tens of billions of transactions weekly. An immune system for predicting cyber threats is planned, according to @Jason. — via 1

Meb Faber pushes back on the conventional wisdom that stocks always outperform bonds. He cites Edward McQuarrie's research showing bonds beat stocks in the 19th century, and the two were roughly tied until World War II. He also points out that for most of U.S. history, the average person could not even buy index funds. — via 1
Faber argues that human brains evolved to avoid predators like lions, not to trade stocks, so market volatility is easily perceived as a survival threat — contributing to most investors underperforming the market. His advice: take a long-term, diversified view rather than reacting like you're facing a predator on the savanna. — via 1

Lyn Alden warns that communism and fascism are rising simultaneously around the world, including in the U.S., in a pattern reminiscent of the 1930s. She expresses concern that people will feel increasingly forced to choose between the two. — via 1
Mohnish Pabrai highlights a specialized training program that helps rural students overcome educational resource constraints; Adarsh Sodhi achieved All-India rank 304 in NEET 2026. Pabrai also frames this within a broader social vision of affordable healthcare for underserved populations. — via 1

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