30-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Hits 5.31%, Highest Since 2007

The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield jumped to 5.31%, the highest since June 2007, while Japan's 30-year yield reached a record 4.05%, raising global debt concerns.
Big tech's AI-related off-balance-sheet commitments are estimated at ~$3 trillion, far exceeding the $600 billion in reported capex, signaling potential systemic risk.
Raoul Pal predicts an economic singularity by 2030 as AGI humanoid robots enter the workforce, but Lyn Alden argues productivity gains may take years to materialize.
Anthropic's ARR is projected to reach $400-500 billion by 2027, even as prominent users criticize Claude's current reliability and inference quality.
U.S. housing starts fell 12.4% in July, while the Empire State manufacturing index eased to 55 but remains expansionary, painting a mixed economic picture.

The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to 5.31%, the highest since June 2007, and Japan's 30-year yield hit a record 4.05%. Charlie Bilello argues the bond market exposes the falsehood of official low-inflation claims and warns that the U.S. faces a Japan-like debt spiral unless fiscal discipline is restored. — via 1 2
Donald Trump proposed declaring the Strait of Hormuz a U.S. territory, claiming the U.S. has implemented a blockade and fully controls the strait (Aug 17, 2026). This statement carries major geopolitical implications but remains unverified. — via 1
Meb Faber notes that bonds are not the safest asset: over the past five years, inflation-adjusted returns range from -10% for short-term Treasuries to over -70% for long zero-coupon bonds, while a globally diversified portfolio gained 20%+. He urges investors to diversify across global stocks, bonds, and real assets. — via 1

Raoul Pal predicts an economic singularity by 2030 (earlier than the 2032 baseline) as AGI humanoid robots enter the labor market as a "new species," expanding economic participants from ~9 billion to effectively infinite. Lyn Alden counters that productivity gains from new technology typically arrive only after infrastructure integration and cost declines, which may still be years away. (Disputed) — via 1 2
Raoul Pal criticized Claude's performance, saying it was nearly unusable, with severe reasoning flaws and low efficiency that quickly exhausted his weekly credits. He says Anthropic must improve inference quality promptly or risk losing customers. — via 1
Charlie Bilello reports that nine major tech companies have AI-related off-balance-sheet commitments of roughly $3 trillion, far higher than the reported $600 billion in capex. This AI arms race is building up massive contingent liabilities that investors may be underestimating. — via 1
Anthropic's annualized revenue is projected to reach $400-500 billion by 2027, according to a discussion by Gavin Baker and David Sacks, as highlighted by Jason. — via 1
Harvey II released Harvey Tenet, the first model trained specifically for legal work, with case/project management, agent collaboration, and memory-style features, per Elad Gil. — via 1

U.S. housing data in July were mixed: the NAHB builder confidence index rose to 35 in August, but July housing starts plunged 12.4% month-over-month, building permits rose 5.0%, and pending home sales fell 2.3% to their lowest level since January. — via 1 2 3 4
The Empire State manufacturing index (ISM-adjusted) eased to 55 in August, still expansionary, but with significantly longer delivery times, rising backlogs, and worsened supply availability. Manufacturers are optimistic about the next six months, with new-order expectations reaching multi-year highs. — via 1 2 3
Spruce Point Capital warned that Nova Minerals has failed to disclose quarterly and annual financials for the period ending June 30, well past earnings season, with heavy spending, no revenue, and possibly only a few quarters of cash left. The firm also noted a $43 million Defense Department grant for antimony projects, but falling antimony prices have forced producers like UAMY to cut forecasts. — via 1
Clifford Asness pointed out that since the February 2000 peak, the Nasdaq 100 has generated an 8.2% annualized return over 26 years, still trailing the S&P 500 and the Dow. This serves as a cautionary tale about tech-bubble valuations. — via 1

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